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Overwhelming majority of Americans oppose 51st state talk

Members of the 3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry reconnaissance platoon following a firefight on the Whale’s Back near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border on March 14, 2002. From left rear: Pte. Shaun Cameron, from Duck Lake, Sask.; Cpl. Erik Kuerr of Edmonton; Sgt. Torry White; MCpl. Vic Mover of Thunder Bay, Ont.; and MCpl. Chuck Cote of Edmonton. In front are Pte. Francis McCann of Langley, B.C.; Capt. Ryan Latinovich of Welland, Ont., and MCpl. Jeff Whibbs of Peterborough, Ont.
[Stephen J. Thorne]

With U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to tariff Canada into submission as the “51st state,” 92 per cent of Americans surveyed by the Angus Reid Institute said they had no, or only qualified, support for a merger.

Sixty per cent of 2,005 Americans questioned online between Feb. 27 and March 3, 2025, said they had no interest in Canada joining the United States, while another 32 per cent said they would support the idea only if Canadians wanted it.

Canadians polled at the same time came in exactly as they had in a previous poll conducted in January 2025: of 2,005 surveyed, a solid 90 per cent rejected the idea of Canada joining the U.S., with 10 per cent saying yes.

The findings are considered accurate to within two percentage points either way, 19 times out of 20.

Just six per cent of the Americans polled said the U.S. should annex Canada using political and economic pressure, while two per cent supported the idea of using military force to do the job.

The data also suggests Trump is out of step with his own voters on the issue: 44 per cent of Trump voters said they weren’t interested in Canada joining the United States at all, while another 42 per cent said they would only want Canada to join the U.S. if Canadians wanted to (Democratic voters polled 77/21).

Twelve per cent of Trumpers said they supported applying political and economic pressure to bring Canada in, while two per cent advocated military force.

“I would say, on balance, the perspective that [CPC leader Pierre Poilievre] would bring would be very much in sync with, I think…the new direction in America.”

The breakdown by Canadian party affiliations showed 21 per cent of Conservative respondents said yes to a merger with the U.S., while 99 per cent of Bloc Quebecois, 98 per cent of Liberal, and 97 per cent of New Democratic Party supporters said no.

The percentage of Conservatives who said they would support a merger rose to 33 per cent when presented with the prospect of a Liberal majority government in Ottawa after the April 28 federal election.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, already in hot water for breaking with other premiers on Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs, created a firestorm after telling Breitbart News she had asked Trump administration officials to put the levies on hold because the issue was favouring the Liberals in the election campaign.

“I would say, on balance, the perspective that [CPC leader Pierre Poilievre] would bring would be very much in sync with, I think…the new direction in America,” she told the Washington bureau chief for the far-right American website on March 22.

Speaking in Halifax on March 25, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Trump “wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen.”

These are challenging times, he told workers at the Irving Shipyard, where he announced plans to build submarines and additional icebreakers, along with promises to boost defence recruiting and hike military pay.

“Our world is changing,” he said. “It’s becoming more divided and dangerous. Our adversaries are increasingly emboldened. And the norms that have kept Canada and the world secure are in peril. The priorities of the United States, once closely aligned to our own, have shifted. Our sovereignty is under threat.”

“Canada is not a real country.”

Faced with the prospect of widespread 25 per cent tariffs on exports to the United States, Canadians are already coming together in ways not seen in decades, proclaiming their love of country, cancelling trips south of the border, and buying Canadian. Provinces have even taken American products off liquor store shelves.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford cancelled a $100-million contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service and threatened to cut off electricity to several northern states.

The South Africa-born, Canada-raised Musk is the world’s richest person. He donated US$288 million to the 2024 Trump election campaign and now heads the administration’s Department of Government Efficiency. He has said “Canada is not a real country.” More than 280,000 people have signed a petition calling for Ottawa to strip him of his Canadian citizenship, a legally unlikely scenario.

Tesla dealerships have been targeted by demonstrations, boycotts and vandalism throughout North America and around the world as Musk leads a mission to cut tens of thousands of public service jobs, eliminate entire departments and programs, and limit foreign aid.

While Ottawa says it will respond in kind to any tariffs on Canadian goods, the impact of rank-and-file Canadians is already being felt in the U.S. Visits by Canadians to American destinations fell 23.5 per cent in February, costing American businesses millions of dollars when the tariff rhetoric was just getting started. That figure predates stories of Canadians and other visitors from allied countries being detained for weeks and even tortured by U.S. border agents.

In a mid-March 2025 survey by the market researcher Leger, two-thirds of Canadians said they had significantly reduced their purchases of American products in stores (68 per cent) and online (65 per cent).

Fifty-nine per cent said they’re less likely to visit the U.S. this year than in 2024. Some 36 per cent of Canadians said they had already cancelled U.S. travel plans.

A separate poll by Montreal-based Approach Tours found even higher resistance among older Canadians, with three-quarters of respondents ages 55 and up saying they’re avoiding trips to the U.S. more than before.

Canadians made an estimated 20.4 million visits to the U.S. last year. That number was expected to rise by more than a million in 2025. The U.S. Travel Association has warned that even a 10 per cent drop in those visits would cost 14,000 American jobs and US$2.1 billion in lost revenue.

“Canada is, and forever will be, an Arctic nation.”

Ottawa is already looking for alternatives to U.S. defence purchases. Carney announced on March 8 that Canada was partnering with Australia on a $6-billion over-the-horizon radar system for Arctic defence.

“The United States and Australia had been in talks about the over the horizon network, but Canada now appears to have leapt over America’s head,” reported the Australian Broadcasting Corp.

“Arctic sovereignty is a strategic priority of our government,” Carney said after making the deal over the phone with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. “Canada is, and forever will be, an Arctic nation.”

The federal government is also reconsidering the $19-billion purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets from U.S. defence giant Lockheed Martin. Portugal has already signalled it would abandon plans to acquire the high-tech warplane.

Canada has paid for the first 16 aircraft, due to be delivered early in 2026.

Defence Minister Bill Blair has suggested the first F-35s might be accepted and the remainder of the fleet would be made up of aircraft from European suppliers, such as the Swedish-built Saab Gripen, which finished second in the competition.

“The prime minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources, particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada,” Blair told CBC’s “Power and Politics.”

Carney told his Halifax audience that Canadians are over the shock of what he called the American “betrayal.”

“But we should never forget the lesson,” he added. “We have to look out for ourselves and we have to look out for each other.”


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