In the years and months leading up to the First World War, all of the great European powers eventually succumbed to the pressure of the situation and mobilized their military forces. War itself wasn’t the aim of the mobilization—up until the last months, hardly anyone thought war would actually happen—instead, the mobilization was intended as sabre rattling, meant to deter aggression by other countries.
Most of Europe’s armies were ready for war by 1914, so it’s no surprise that war was the result.
With all eyes on our war in the Middle East, it’s easy to forget that our old foe, Russia, is not only resurgent but genuinely belligerent. And it is preparing for war.
At least, that’s what the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) thinks is happening. In a report called 2018 Security Outlook, Potential Risks and Threats, the intelligence service makes a stark appraisal of Russia’s current situation: “Russia sees itself as surrounded by an arc of instability and chaos, and engaged in a ’clash of civilizations’. It attributes conflict on its periphery to Western malice and incompetence,” reads the report. “Russia is not modernizing its military primarily to extend its capacity to pursue hybrid warfare. It is modernizing conventional military capability on a large scale; the state is mobilizing for war.”
But as Russia mobilizes, so does NATO, which has recently begun moving heavy weapons into Eastern Europe. Both sides are trying to achieve deterrence by showing they are prepared to fight.
No one thinks war is going to happen, but we have fallen into this trap before.
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