Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets have been indiscriminate. Much of Eastern Europe is on elevated alert levels as the prospect of a wider war looms.
[Ukrainian Ministry of Defence]
“We live in uncertain times,” declares a Swedish government booklet distributed to households across the country. “Armed conflicts are currently being waged in our corner of the world.
“If Sweden is attacked, everyone must do their part to defend Sweden’s independence—and our democracy…. In this brochure, you learn how to prepare for, and act, in case of crisis or war.”
Tensions mounted recently after Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike. The move followed a Ukrainian strike deep inside Russia with U.S.-made ATACMS missiles—supersonic conventional weapons.
The Moscow doctrine deems any attack by a non-nuclear power supported by a nuclear power a joint attack, and any attack by one member of a military bloc an attack by the entire alliance.
Announced on Nov. 19, the 1,000th day of the Ukraine war, Russia also included a broader definition of the data that could be used to indicate Russia was under mass attack from aircraft, cruise missiles and unpiloted drones.
Sweden’s “In case of crisis or war” has been updated due to what the government in Stockholm describes as a worsening security situation. The booklet’s size has doubled to 32 pages.
[The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency.]
The current state of U.S.-Russia relations has been termed an all-time low, or their worst at least since the 12-day Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The Kremlin acknowledged this in 2023. And emphasized zero change almost a year later.
“Now the danger of a direct armed clash between nuclear powers cannot be underestimated,” said Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister overseeing arms control and U.S. relations. “What is happening has no analogies in the past, we are moving through unexplored military and political territory.”
“If Sweden is attacked by another country, we will never give up.”
First published in 2018, Sweden’s “In case of crisis or war” has been updated due to what the government in Stockholm calls the worsening security situation (that is Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine). The booklet’s size has doubled to 32 pages.
“Military threat levels are increasing,” it warns. “We must be prepared for the worst-case scenario—an armed attack on Sweden.
“We can never take our freedom for granted. Our courage and will to defend our open society are vital, even though it may require us to make certain sacrifices.”
The document encourages Swedes to join a voluntary defence organization with “specific duties within the framework of Sweden’s total defence system,” complete a course in emergency CPR, donate blood and talk to neighbours about “how to strengthen your collective preparedness.”
It says Sweden is already under attack from cyber warriors, disinformation campaigns, terrorism and sabotage. And it discusses the implications of, and responses to, non-military threats such as extreme weather, dangerous pathogens, IT outages and organized crime.
Russian troops in Ukraine prepare to deploy an Orlan-10, capable of directed artillery strikes, prowling for enemy movement, jamming cellphone towers and dropping bomblets.
[TASS]
But one message has been moved up from the middle of the new booklet: “If Sweden is attacked by another country, we will never give up. All information to the effect that resistance is to cease is false.”
Finland, Norway and Denmark—all bordering on the strategic Baltic Sea—have also issued pamphlets, booklets and/or online advisories addressing the spectre of crises, including war, and how to respond to them.
Sweden joined NATO in 2024 after Moscow expanded its war in 2022. Finland had joined a year earlier, while its neighbours, Norway and Denmark, like Canada, are founding members of the defensive alliance.
As for Finland, it already has a long history with Moscow’s hegemonic aspirations, dating to the Finnish War of 1808-’09 when Russia invaded and took what was then the eastern part of the Kingdom of Sweden. It formed the Grand Duchy of Finland, an autonomous piece of the Russian Empire.
The empire collapsed during the Russian Revolution of 1917, and Finland seized on what the Bolsheviks deemed the inalienable right to self-determination, seceding and declaring its independence. A civil war ensued, pitting German-aided conservatives on one side and Bolshevik-backed socialists on the other, resulting in full, if not fragile, sovereignty in May 1918.
“Finland has always been…prepared for the worst possible threat, war.”
On Nov. 30, 1939, Joseph Stalin’s Red Army launched a costly invasion into Finland aimed at creating a buffer around Leningrad.
By the time the fighting stopped and a treaty was signed, three-and-a-half months had passed and Moscow had gained more territory than it had demanded prewar.
But in a scenario that sounds uncannily familiar in these Ukrainian war times, Finnish defenders knocked out almost 2,000 Russian tanks, an estimated 400 of them by fire alone, primarily ignited by Molotov cocktails. The Soviets had lost up to 168,000 soldiers killed or missing and more than 207,000 wounded or sick.
Moscow’s prestige had taken a hit, while Finland’s was elevated.
“Finland has always been…prepared for the worst possible threat, war,” says its digital brochure, “Preparing for incidents and crises.”
“Military defence is built on conscription and the support of the whole society to national defence. All Finnish citizens have a national defence obligation, and everyone plays an important role in defending Finland.”
Finnish troops operate a Maxim M-32 machine gun on Feb. 21, 1940, during the Winter War with the Soviet Union.
[Wikimedia]
“Everyone aged 18 or over but under 68 living in Finland is obliged to participate in rescue, first aid, maintenance and clearing tasks or other civil defence tasks.”
Ilmari Kaihko, associate professor of war studies at the Swedish Defence University, told the BBC that his native Finland, which shares a significant border with Russia, “never forgot that war is a possibility, whereas in Sweden, people had to be shaken up a bit to understand that this can actually happen.”
“If the warning sirens sound in short intervals for approximately one minute this means ‘Danger, risk of attack—seek cover.’”
Norway’s 20-page “How you can play your part in Norway’s emergency preparedness” describes how citizens should respond in crises, from storing water bottles in a dark, cool place and stocking up on a week’s worth of food, to maintaining supplies of candles, flashlights and first aid materials.
It urges people who have to leave their homes during wars and crises to plan their escape routes and bring appropriate clothing, a mobile phone, bank cards and cash, along with ID, medicines and other items in case they run into unforeseen circumstances.
“We live in an increasingly turbulent world—among other things due to climate change, war and digital threats,” it says. “If the warning sirens sound in short intervals for approximately one minute this means ‘Danger, risk of attack—seek cover.’”
“If there are no emergency shelters in the immediate vicinity, you should seek cover in a basement or in a room in the centre of the building. Explosions may cause windows to shatter and glass can injure those nearby. Therefore you should keep away from windows.”
The Nordic and Baltic states are coveted for their access to the Baltic Sea.
[Google Maps]
The Danish Emergency Management document makes no mention of war, but provides useful material applicable to all crises, including a checklist of items to have on hand and other considerations.
Putin signed a law in 2023 that withdrew Moscow’s ratification of the global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests. The Russian leader has said it brought the country in line with the Americans, who have signed but never ratified the treaty.
The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—all on the front line of a potential Russian attack—along with Poland have been in an advanced state of war readiness for 20 years. NATO dispatched multinational forces in 2017 to protect them from Russian troop buildups near their borders.
Canada has led a 13-country NATO battle group in Latvia and is scheduled to deploy 2,200 troops at the head of a mechanized infantry brigade in 2026.
The Latvia force is one of eight multinational battle groups NATO has deployed in Eastern and Central Europe. They now include the three Baltic states as well as Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
All were first annexed by the former Soviet Union at the end of WW II and are widely seen as coveted prizes to Putin. They would provide access to key ports, expand influence, and restore Kremlin pride and hegemony.
A Canadian soldier carries spent light anti-tank weapons following Exercise Steele Crescendo outside of Riga, Latvia, in 2020.
[NATO]
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