Canada’s Minister of National Defence Bill Blair, left, and Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles [Wikipedia]

This past July, Canada and Australia issued a joint memorandum declaring that they would increase naval co-operation in the Pacific for the express purpose of pushing back against Chinese naval expansion. It’s a significant step away from the pretend neutrality that Canada presented the world amid growing confrontation between China and just about every country that borders on the South China Sea.

The announcement from the two nations was not a Canadian-Australian version of AUKUS—the Australian, U.K. and U.S. agreement to pool resources to help the former acquire a small fleet of nuclear submarines sometime in the 2030s.

China currently has the largest navy in the world and there’s no sign of it slowing its growth as the country looks to add a flush-deck aircraft carrier with a magnetic aircraft launcher to its fleet. And if the country’s ongoing confrontations with the Philippines near the Spratly Islands signify anything, it’s that nothing will stop the country that Napolean supposedly called “the sleeping dragon” from continuing to claim the entire South China Sea as, in effect, its own internal waterway.

Canada has never agreed with the Chinese on that position and continues to claim that the sea is an international waterway and must be open to ships of all countries. But Canada, unlike the U.S., Britain and other countries, has only whispered that position.

This past June, in fact, Global Affairs Canada released a statement condemning “the dangerous and destabilizing actions” of China, indicating the country isn’t following its obligations with regard to international law. However, mildly worded statements from a country with relatively few military resources in the area don’t seem to faze the Chinese.

Canada’s recent muscle flexing in relation to who owns what in the far Pacific amounts to shifting a single 30-year-old Halifax-class frigate, HMCS Max Bernays, from Canadian Forces Base Halifax to CFB Esquimalt.

When a Canadian warship has occasionally sailed through the Taiwan Strait it was claimed by Ottawa, until recently, that the vessel was merely taking the most direct passage from point A to B. Only in the last two or so years has the Royal Canadian Navy admitted that these sea passages are done for the purpose of asserting that the waterway is international territory.

Although the Australian and Canadian navies are roughly the same size (even though Canada’s population is larger by about 12 million), the Australians take their naval and air resources far more seriously.

For example, Canada has four 1980s-era, British-built submarines, but it’s rare to have two of them at sea at any one time. The Australians opted to build their own six Collins-class submarines, and while those boats suffer from constant mechanical challenges themselves, at least Australia is moving toward the acquisition of a nuclear-powered option.

While Canada faces the unique challenge of the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, only recently did it announce that it would be looking at trying to acquire a dozen non-nuclear submarines with under-ice capabilities during the next decade. Several other nations—Germany, Israel, Japan, South Korea and others—operate so-called non-nuclear AIP submarines (with air-independent propulsion, hence the acronym) that can remain submered for two to three weeks. Of course, there’s the ongoing debate whether such boats will give Canada the Arctic capacity it needs.    

The Royal Canadian Navy admitted that these sea passages are done for the purpose of asserting that the Taiwan Strait is international territory.

Canadian naval expansion is still much more a dream than a reality. The new Arctic offshore patrol ships have had several major problems, which isn’t promising since only three of the multimillion-dollar vessels have been completed and they only have a 12-month warranty.

Meanwhile, the Canadian surface combatant warships that are slated to replace the Halifax-class frigates exist only on paper, and their cost has ballooned even before any steel has been cut. Officials originally said the 15 vessels would cost $26 billion to build, but in June 2024, Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux estimated the project would total $84 billion. Still, National Defence now maintains it will cost no more than $60 billion.

In July, Canada, the U.S. and Finland announced they would form a consortium to build new icebreakers to counter an ambitious Chinese program to develop the vessels. Indeed, this past summer, China dispatched three new icebreakers to the Arctic.

It’s good that Canada is finally recognizing a new world order and threats to the Great White North. The key question: can Canada’s naval program catch up?

Check out David J. Bercuson’s new book, Canada’s Air Force: The Royal Canadian Air Force at 100, available now from University of Toronto Press.